Can we estimate amount of bugs in a big project before finding them? Actually, it seems that we can, and there is a suitable thing to do so - prediction markets. They allow users to quantify their beliefs a bit, while rewarding correct predictions with something... like right to brag!
I know of one such platform, called Manifold Markets.
(if you'd like an affiliate link, here's one: Manifold, or enter that @AnT (Ender Ting) is the referrer)
About Manifold
Users have play-money (disconnected from real world or crypto) that's called mana. On markets, one can buy Yes or No shares to change the odds of an answer. The odds are reflected in the market price changing how much Yes and No cost. Buying pressure on each side causes the market to converge to a price that accurately forecasts the future.
Examples of markets about software bugs
How precise is that?
If someone believes they feel a bug and others don't, they will be incentivized to correct the market, so finally it is going to converge to true probability.
If you believe you have no bugs, you may put a limit order on very low probability, saying "we think probability of error in our code is less than 5%", for instance. Then if someone finds a bug, he'll very likely report it to get winnings from the market. It's a bit similar to bug bounty (but no replacement to real-world bounty, of course).
Speaking about precision, Manifold is only a bit overconfident on average questions. Here's its calibration graph:
I'd like to hear your thoughts, whether your projects will or will not use prediction markets to find bugs, whatever else! I will also feel honoured to bet on your projects.
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