In a little over six months, the Corona virus epidemic has affected over ten million and killed over half a million people worldwide as on June 30, 2020. With no vaccine in sight, the spread of the virus is likely to continue unabated. This article aims to analyze the time series data for top five countries affected by the COVID-19 for forecasting the spread of the epidemic.
Daily time series data from 15th February to June 30, 2020 of total infected cases from the top five countries namely US, Brazil, India, Russia and Spain were collected from the online database. ARIMA model specifications were estimated using Hannan and Rissanen algorithm. Out of sample forecast for the next 77 days was computed using the ARIMA models.
Forecast for the first 18 days of July was compared with the actual data and the forecast accuracy was using MAD and MAPE were found within acceptable agreement. The graphic plots of forecast data suggest that While Russia and Spain have reached the inflexion point in the spread of epidemic, the US, Brazil and India are still experiencing an exponential curve.
Our analysis shows that India and Brazil will hit 1.38 million and 2.47 million mark while the US will reach the 4.29 million mark by 31st July. With no effective cure available at the moment, this forecast will help the governments to be better prepared to combat the epidemic by ramping up their healthcare facilities.
Our analysis shows that India and Brazil will hit 1.38 million and 2.47 million mark while the US will reach the 4.29 million mark by 31st July. With no effective cure available at the moment, this forecast will help the governments to be better prepared to combat the epidemic by ramping up their healthcare facilities.
As the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic unravels rapidly, there is a glut of confusing and divergent scientific information emanating from differing sources, including the Indian National Task Force for COVID-19. Thus, a web-based survey was conducted to decipher the approach of Indian doctors to the various options for treatment of COVID-19.
A web-based questionnaire among one lakh doctors across India through email and social media was circulated. After data quality and internal validation, 826 responses were included for analysis. Basic demographic and comparative analysis were performed using the Python3.8.2 software (Windows 10 64 bit, USA).
Amongst all the states of India most respondents hailed from the top ten affected states. Overall 76.15% of doctors would either prescribe or consider prescribing hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) as prophylaxis for health-care providers (HCP). Doctors with experience of managing COVID-19 were more likely to advocate use of HCQ as prophylaxis for HCP (χ2=4.357, P=0.037). Intensivists were more likely to advocate HCQ as prophylaxis (χ2=14.588, P<0.001) as well as for management of mild to moderate COVID-19 (χ2=3.91, P=0.048). In COVID-19, 65.8% doctors overwhelmingly preferred using anti-viral agents in severe cases, continuing ACEi/ARB (60.9%), and routinely screening for COVID-19 as a pre-operative strategy (73.85%).
Indian doctors are largely following the scientific guidance provided by Indian National Task Force for COVID-19 and would consider prescribing HCQ as prophylaxis for COVID-19. They would also consider using it in mild to moderate COVID-19.
Indian doctors are largely following the scientific guidance provided by Indian National Task Force for COVID-19 and would consider prescribing HCQ as prophylaxis for COVID-19. They would also consider using it in mild to moderate COVID-19.
Metabolic syndrome is one of the serious public health problems among type 2 diabetic patients. Despite a number of studies have been conducted, there is no overall estimation on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome among type 2 diabetic patients in Sub-Saharan African countries. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of metabolic syndrome in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Sub -Saharan African countries.
PubMed, Web of Science, African Journals Online, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Wiley Online Library databases from inception to April 27, 2020 were searched to identify relevant studies. The I
statistic was used to check heterogeneity across the included studies. DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model was applied to estimate pooled effect size, and 95% confidence interval across studies. A funnel plot and Egger's regression test were used to determine the presence of publication bias. Sensitivity analysis was deployed to determine the effect of a single study on the oe and control the burden of metabolic syndrome and its impact among diabetic population.
Almost two out of three type 2 diabetic patients in Sub-Saharan African countries have metabolic syndrome, which implies that its prevalence is high in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Therefore, policymakers need to design efficient strategies and guideline to reduce and control the burden of metabolic syndrome and its impact among diabetic population.
Overweight and obesity are thought to be associated with increased risk of chronic disease in the Middle East. The present study aimed to determine the association between dietary habits and the incidence of overweight and obesity in urban adult population in the central part of Iran after a 10-year follow-up.
This cohort study was initiated with 2000 participation aged 20-74 years from Yazd city in Iran based on Yazd Healthy Heart Project (YHHP). The participants without overweight and obesity at the baseline of the study were followed up to 10 years. Demographic data, anthropometric measurements, behavioral and metabolic risk factors of cardiovascular diseases and dietary habits were assessed at baseline and phase II.
After a 10-year follow up, 516 non-overweight and 1068 non-obese participants were included for the final analysis. #link# Once adjustments were made for all potential confounders including age, sex, smoking, economic status, physical activity and education, it was identified that lack of weight control increased the risk of obesity (hazard ratio; 95% CI) in total population (1.9; 1.06, 3.4), as well as the risk of overweight (2.39; 1.07, 5.27) and obesity (2.65; 1.13, 6.25) in men. Moreover, consumption of mayonnaise increased the 10-year risk of overweight in women (6.09; 1.2, 30.99).
As revealed by the present study, unhealthy dietary habits can increase the incidence of overweight and obesity in central part of Iran. Therefore, changing the lifestyle appears to be urgent in reducing the risk of overweight and obesity.
As revealed by the present study, unhealthy dietary habits can increase the incidence of overweight and obesity in central part of Iran. Therefore, changing the lifestyle appears to be urgent in reducing the risk of overweight and obesity.
find more (T2DM) is known to be associated with an increase in total plasma free fatty acid (FFA) concentration. The present study was conducted to determine the changes in plasma fatty acids at different levels of glycation in type 2 diabetes mellitus.
The study involved 50 subjects having different levels of glycation (HbA1c 4.9-15.0%) and further categorized in 5 groups [group 1 (HbA1c <6%), group 2 (HbA1c 6-7%), group 3 (HbA1c 7.1-9%), group 4 (HbA1c (9.1-12%) and group 5 (HbA1c >12%)] with 10 subjects in each group.
A total of 19 free fatty acids were detected by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis in the plasma samples. The levels of lauric acid (C120) and stearic acid (C180) were significantly raised at an advanced stage of glycation (HbA1c 9.1-15%). Long-chain fatty acids, pentadecanoic acid (C150) and palmitic acid (C160) levels were elevated in hyperglycemia as compared to normoglycaemic subjects (HbA1c <6%). Moreover, levels of mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids, oleic acid (C181) and linoleic acid (C182, w6) were significantly decreased in patients with increased levels of glycation (HbA1c 6-15%).
GC-MS is a novel way to study the plasma fatty acid profiling and findings of this study suggest that monitoring alterations in plasma FFA profile may be of prognostic value.
GC-MS is a novel way to study the plasma fatty acid profiling and findings of this study suggest that monitoring alterations in plasma FFA profile may be of prognostic value.
The study assessed the impact of continuous patient education on Knowledge, Attitude, Practice (KAP), medication adherence and extent of glycemic control in pregnant women with gestational diabetes on insulin or metformin therapy.
81 women with gestational diabetes (37 on insulin and 44 on metformin) were assessed for KAP using a validated questionnaire and medication adherence using the 8-items Morisky medication adherence scale, fasting, and postprandial blood glucose levels at the baseline and after two education sessions on drug therapy at one and three months intervals. The difference in mean KAP, medication adherence scores, fasting, and postprandial blood glucose levels and the extent of glycemic control with insulin or metformin therapy were assessed statistically.
There was a highly significant difference in the mean KAP, medication adherence scores, fasting and postprandial blood glucose levels from baseline to follow-up after three months, (P<0.0001) indicating that continuous patient education had a positive impact on their KAP, medication adherence, blood glucose levels.
The study identified that continuous patient education improved their knowledge and practice of medication adherence which reflected on lowered fasting and postprandial blood glucose levels. Glycemic control was found to be the same with metformin and insulin in gestational diabetes.
The study identified that continuous patient education improved their knowledge and practice of medication adherence which reflected on lowered fasting and postprandial blood glucose levels. Glycemic control was found to be the same with metformin and insulin in gestational diabetes.
The pandemic COVID-19 occurring due to novel emerging coronavirus-2019 (SARS-CoV-2) is severely affecting the worldwide public health, culture, economy and human social behaviour. link2 Till date, there is no approved medicine/treatment to cure COVID-19, whereas, vaccine development efforts are going on high priority. This review aimed to provide an overview of prior art, recent advances, vaccine designing strategies, current scenario, opportunities and challenges related to development of coronavirus vaccine.
A literature survey was conducted using Scopus, PubMed and Google Scholar with the search key as coronavirus vaccine, SARS vaccine, MERS vaccine and COVID-19 vaccine. Articles related to above search query were retrieved, sorted, analyzed and developed into an easy-to-understand review.
The genome phylogenetic analysis suggested that genomic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is almost 80% similar to that of SARS-CoV, further both these viruses bind to same host cell receptor ACE-2. Hence it is expected that, previously available literature data about coronavirus vaccine designing may play crucial role in development of rapid vaccine against COVID-19. link3 In view of this, the present review discuss (i) existing information (from 2003 to present) about the type of vaccine, antigen, immunogenic response, animal model, route of administration, adjuvants and current scenario for designing of coronavirus vaccine (ii) potential factors and challenges related to rapid development of COVID-19 vaccine.
In conclusion, we discuss possible clues/ target sites for designing of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus based on prior-art.
In conclusion, we discuss possible clues/ target sites for designing of vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus based on prior-art.find more
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